Saturday, August 17, 2013

Custom defense

Hey, I'm Bob.

Here are my thoughts on the all-time NFL team. I've written more than is probably healthy.

Gameday Roster
QB: Joe Montana.                        Bart Starr.                   
HB: Jim Brown.                           Barry Sanders, Walter Payton
FB: Marion Motley.                
TE: John Mackey.                        Mike Ditka, Tony Gonzalez
WR: Jerry Rice, Don Hutson.      Paul Warfield, Lance Alworth, Devin Hester, Steve Tasker
C: Dwight Stephenson.                Bruce Matthews
G: John Hannah, Jim Parker.       Larry Allen
T: Anthony Munoz, Forrest Gregg.   

DT: Joe Greene, Bob Lilly               Alan Page, Merlin Olsen

DE: Reggie White, Deacon Jones    Bruce Smith, Gino Marchetti
MLB: Dick Butkus.                          Ray Lewis
OLB: Derrick Brooks, Jack Ham.   Bobby Bell, Ted Hendricks
CB: Dick Lane, Mel Blount.             Herb Adderley, Rod Woodson, Darrell Green
S: Ronnie Lott, Emlen Tunnell.       Ed Reed

P: Ray Guy.                            Adam Vinateri
K: Adam Vinateri.                  Ray Guy
PR: Devin Hester.                  Jack Christiansen
KR: Devin Hester.                  Herb Adderley
LS: Bobby Bell.                      Bruce Matthews
H: Ray Guy.                            Bart Starr

Reserves: Sid Luckman, Bronko Nagurski, Michael Irivn, Jim Otto, Jonathan Ogden, Jack Lambert, Jack Christiansen

( ) Players in reserve that will start in the event of injury

Responses to probable questions and objections...

Honorable Mentions: There are over 200 players in the NFL Hall of Fame, all of  whom would obviously be outstanding players on this team. The following players are the ones I most wish I had room on the roster for: Johnny Unitas, Emmitt Smith, Lorenzo Neal, Kellen Winslow, Raymond Berry, Mike Webster, Randall McDaniel, Art Shell,  Warren Sapp, Willie Davis, Mike Singletary, Kevin Greene, Willie Brown, Ken Houston, Larry Wilson. 

Depth: I have 26 players on offense, 25 on defense, and 2 on special teams (22, 22, and 2 dressed). My special teams players have each both kicked and punted in college, so they are each other's emergency backup. I only have three safeties dressed, but Rod Woodson can be shifted if there are two injuries in a single game. Ray Guy is also my emergency quarterback, as he was with the Raiders.  

No Deion Sanders: Deion Sanders is not a particularly gifted tackler. My selections are all among the hardest-hitting corners to ever play the game. My two starters hit so hard that the NFL had to change the rules! While Deion Sanders is a Hall of Fame caliber player, his coverage skills are comparable to the harder-hitting players I've selected. Lem Barney is another example of a Hall of Fame caliber CB who doesn't hit hard enough to make the team.

No Randy Moss or Terrell Owens: While both are incredibly talented players, they are both a toxic presence in the locker room and are therefore not welcome on my team. This list is certainly not exhaustive. 

No Jim Thorpe: I did not feel comfortable putting a player without footage to evaluate on my team (The player I saw the least footage of was Jack Christiansen, but I was very impressed with what little I saw).

Back-up Quarterbacks: While few would be surprised with Joe Montana at #1, most people do not have Starr and Luckman in their top 10, let alone their top 3. But like Montana, both Starr and Luckman have incredible post-season passer ratings, incredible regular season stats (in their respective eras), and were true leaders on teams that became championship dynasties. The more difficult question is why Montana isn't 2nd or 3rd. The answer is that he has the highest championship game passer rating of all-time at a staggering 127.8. Special thanks to The Cold Hard Football Facts, whose quarterback analysis, though we reached different conclusions, heavily influenced my own. 

Overall: I realize the decision to cut Sanders and Moss will not be popular. But I trust my gut, and I firmly believe I have assembled the best possible team. 

Strategy...

DEFENSE: Football is a violent sport. With this in mind, I created a base defense to maximize the potential for violence. I decided to create my own original base defense because standard defenses were not developed with the all-time greatest players at every position. I have diagrammed it with the initials of each player with a coverage assignment:




           As you can see, it is a Cover-2 zone scheme run out of a 4-3 set. It is designed to counter a 3 or 4 WR base set without subbing to a nickle package. It achieves this by requiring less mobility from the linebackers and asking more from the CBs than in the Tampa 2. In general, it has less vulnerability deep but has more holes underneath than the Tampa 2. However, these holes are what will allow my defense to shed some blood. And whereas the Tampa 2 relies on discipline in coverage, this system rewards jumping routes. As with any defense, we will play with lots of varied formations, blitzes, etc. apart from the base set.  
            The most unique aspect of the system is that the OLBs, Ham and Taylor, play press zone coverage. The OLBs line up 3-5 yards across from the receivers and should manhandle any receiver attempting to rip the seam. After bumping their man, they should buzz through the curl and widen with the flat as they would in a traditional Cover 3. I chose this coverage for the OLBs partially because it allows Lawrence Taylor, who reportedly struggled in space (although I beg to differ), to be physical near the line of scrimmage and limits his coverage responsibility to an underneath zone. Ham played exceedingly well in space, but he was also adept at bumping TE's at the snap, so I'm comfortable giving him the same basic assignment as Taylor. What Ham lacks in responsibility he will more than make up for in anticipation. Both have the speed to quickly make tackles after the catch and Taylor is exceptional at forcing fumbles. 
            The corners, Lane and Blount, play an outside zone, which is the most demanding assignment in this system. They should line up 8 yards off the line off scrimmage and should play with inside leverage. By playing off and keeping their eyes on the QB, the corners should have ample opportunity to jump the slant and shorter comeback and curl routes from the outside receiver. Usually, the corner will go downfield with the outside receiver for the entire play. In some ways, this assignment is almost a catch-man concept with a few built-in exceptions (e.g. not following shallow crossing routes across the field). Note how the play of both the corners and OLBs are designed to ease the burden of the safeties. However, if they can anticipate the call and are willing to gamble (and Lane was a notorious gambler) they will also be able to demolish bumped inside receivers on out routes and late-breaking routes to the flats, or intercept the pass on these routes. 
             Butkus will start 5 yards off the line of scrimmage. After making the run/pass read, Butkus will drop back into the middle hook/curl zone, not the deep middle zone seen in the Tampa 2. His main responsibility is to demolish receivers crossing the field, especially dig routes and deeper slant routes. And even if he doesn't arrive in time to disrupt (or intercept) the pass, he is superb at forcing fumbles.
             The safeties, Lott and Tunnell, will line up 15 yards deep as in the traditional Cover-2. As mentioned, they will not have deep help from the Mike as they would in the Tampa 2. However, with the OLB's pressing the seam routes and the corners covering the corner routes from the outside receivers, the burden on the safeties should easier than their responsibilities in the Tampa 2.   
             Lastly, my defensive line will be playing in a one-gap system with both DEs in the 5 technique (outside shoulder of the tackle), with Lilly as the 1 technique, and Greene as the 3 technique. The look does not change if there is a TE on one or both sides of the formation since the OLBs line up directly against the 3rd and 4th receivers in the formation regardless. 

 Vulnerabilities:


       This defense requires lots of switch-offs depending on the progression of the play. If corners and the safeties aren't on the same page, there is the potential for big gains. When in doubt, the defenders should cover the deeper route.       
        Once the corners go down field, the flats are largely undefended. However, both the OLBs and the corners are in position to jump routes for interceptions and/or deliver devastating hits. This is exactly what you want in a bend-don't-break zone scheme.          
        On running plays out of a single-back set, Butkus is responsible for the strong side B gap and the weak side A gap, which leaves him vulnerable to cutbacks. Although the Mike position is somewhat of a 2-gap assignment to begin with, if this proves too much for Butkus to handle, I will move White directly over the tackle in a 2 gap technique.


Overall:

       While the Tampa 2 seems to have fallen out of favor in today's NFL, my variation should breathe life back into the Cover 2 concept. This defense forces the offense to repeatedly throw into tight windows, creating lots of opportunities for big hits and turnovers. Only three of the 5 underneath zones are covered at any given moment, but I dare you to consistently hit short routes with Butkus, Ham, and Taylor flying around underneath and Blount and Lane barreling down the sidelines. Similarly, it might be tempting to test the middle of the field by lofting the ball over Butkus, but woe betide the receiver caught outstretched with Lott and Tunnell roaming the outfield.    


Q: WHOA, LT ISN'T PART OF THE BASE 4-MAN PASS RUSH!?!? WHY AREN'T YOU PLAYING A 3-4 SO HE CAN BLITZ MOST DOWNS?!?

A:       While there are countless hybrids, there are two fundamental 3-4 concepts: 1-gap and 2-gap. My main concern with the 2-gap 3-4 defense is that there are no Nose Tackles in the Hall of Fame. Bill Willis played directly over center, but he was an undersized lineman on a 5-man front; hardly a 3-4 prototype. Vince Wilfork is a future Hall of Famer, and Ted Washington and Fred Smerlas should arguably be in, but do they really compare to the iconic 4-3 DTs on my team? I think not. As for the 1-gap three four, I would still want Lilly and Greene on the field to dominate the line, which leaves two spots for outside pass rushers. Rather than choose between Jones and White, I would rather have both on the field with the option to blitz LT. Furthermore, LT is incredible against the run and has general 'playmaker' instincts, so he will certainly excel in my system. And, unlike the Tampa 2, he will be given plenty of opportunities to blitz.
           Basically, LT is my big exception. I'm running a 4-3 scheme and LT is a 3-4 player. What would make the most sense is to start Derrick Brooks alongside Ham, which would give me airtight pass coverage with an unstoppable 4 man rush. But tempting as that may sound, LT is simply the best there ever was. He's a square peg in a round hole, but dammit I'm going to make it work!
       


OFFENSE: I will use smashmouth, ball-control running to set up play-action passing. I certainly have the personnel to run a more complex passing scheme, but I prefer simple concepts that are well-executed. While I admit I have a much stronger vision for the defense, I do have some offensive ambition. The 1978 New England Patriots set the single-season record for total rushing yards with 3,165. I intend to break this record. Let's say my running backs average over 5 yards per carry on an average of 40 rushing attempts per game. This beats the record and averages over 200 rushing yards per game, just like the 1972 Dolphins and the 1976 Steelers. That's my kind of team. Old School.

Offensive line:
          With Jim Parker, John Hannah, and Forrest Gregg on the line, I'm imagining a lot of outside power running with pulling offensive linemen. On inside runs, Dwight Stephenson is quick enough to chip shot a defensive tackle and still make a second level block on a linebacker. 

Running backs:
          I plan on using a tandem backfield system where each of my four running backs are used roughly equally each game. However, I also plan on often using Motley as a lead blocker, so he would probably see fewer carries than the HBs. 

Quarterback/Receivers:
         I'm hoping to exploit my power running game for lots of play action passing. On these plays, I imagine Hutson usually going deep, Rice and Mackey on mid range routes, and Motley as the check-down receiver. In general, I have a quarterback adept at short timing routes and Rice, Mackey and Motley are all among the greatest receivers after the catch of all-time. When the running game isn't quite clicking, we certainly will still have plenty of ways to win.

Overall: Any "All-Time" team will obviously have weapons at every position. But it's still important to have an overall philosophy, a preferred method of attack, a standard from which to deviate. For me, I want a hard-nosed physically punishing running attack to be the cornerstone of the offense. And we can already see that old-school power running is making a comeback in today's NFL, so I have no doubt that this system will produce results.



I'd love to hear what anyone has to say at stephenproctorjr@gmail.com

Thursday, July 25, 2013

Man coverage

Hey, I'm Bob.

Here are my thoughts on the all-time NFL team. I've written more than is probably healthy.

The Team 
QB: Joe Montana.                      Bart Starr, Sid Luckman
HB: Jim Brown.                          Barry Sanders, Walter Payton
FB: Marion Motley.                    Bronko Nagurski
TE: John Mackey.                      Mike Ditka, Tony Gonzalez
WR: Jerry Rice, Don Hutson.     Paul Warfield, Lance Alworth, Cris Carter, Steve Tasker
C: Dwight Stephenson.               Jim Otto, Bruce Matthews
LG: John Hannah, RG: Jim Parker.   Larry Allen
LT: Anthony Munoz, RT: Forrest Gregg.   Jonathan Ogden

RDT: Joe Greene, LDT: Bob Lilly    Alan Page, Merlin Olsen
RDE: Deacon Jones LDE: Reggie White.   Bruce Smith, Gino Marchetti
MLB: Dick Butkus                        Ray Lewis
OLB:                                               Lawrence Taylor, Derrick Brooks       
CB: Deion Sanders, Darrell Green, Rod Woodson.   Willie Brown, Mike Haynes, Champ Bailey
FS: Ronnie Lott,                             Emlen Tunnell
SS: Ken Houston                            Steve Atwater                      

P: Ray Guy.                                 Adam Vinateri
K: Adam Vinateri.                       Ray Guy
PR: Jack Christiansen.                 Darrell Green, Rod Woodson
KR: Darrell Green.                      Jack Christiansen, Rod Woodson
LS: Bobby Bell.                           Bruce Matthews, Jim Otto
H: Ray Guy.                                Bart Starr, Sid Luckman

Responses to probable questions and objections...

Honorable Mentions: There are over 200 players in the NFL Hall of Fame, all of  whom would obviously be outstanding players on this team. The following players are the ones I most wish I had room on the roster for: Johnny Unitas, Emmitt Smith, Lorenzo Neal, Kellen Winslow, Raymond Berry, Mike Webster, Randall McDaniel, Art Shell, John Randle, Willie Davis, Mike Singletary, Derrick Brooks, Darrell Revis, Ken Houston, Larry Wilson

Depth: I have 26 players on offense, 25 on defense, and 2 on special teams. I selected Bruce Matthews to add depth at each position on the offensive line and Rod Woodson to add depth at both safety positions. My special teams players have each both kicked and punted in college, so they are each other's emergency backup.

No Jim Thorpe: I did not feel comfortable putting a player without footage to evaluate on my team.

No Randy Moss or Terrell Owens: While both are incredibly talented players, they are both a toxic presence in the locker room and are therefore not welcome on my team. 

Darrell Green as KR: Due to a cautious Joe Gibbs, Darrell Green returned only one kickoff in his career. However, he is one of the fastest players in NFL history, averaged a career 12.0 yards per punt return on 51 attempts, and once returned a punt for a touchdown in the 1987 NFC divisional playoff game. As a full-time KR, he will be among the elite players at this position.

Strategy...

DEFENSE: All defensive systems have strengths and weaknesses. Coaches usually take their best player and build a system where he does more with less. If you have a shutdown corner, you can put him on an island in man coverage. If you have a great defensive end, you don't have to blitz much. If you have a great MLB, don't need 8 men in the box. The problem with my team is that I don't have a best player. They're all the best. I can do more with less at every position. So what I have ask myself is, "Where do I want the extra guy?". Since I have LT as a linebacker, I will run Cover-1 Man as my base defense so that he can blitz on most plays. My front four would certainly be enough to consistently get to the quarterback. My base five-man rush will be almost unstoppable! Again, I can do more with less elsewhere on the field. My DB's are all capable of running tight man-to-man coverage and my rangy safety can play center-field by himself.  

Let's look at how all the pieces fit together in the base defense.

Front Four
1-T: Bob Lilly 3-T: Joe Greene 5-T: Deacon Jones 5-T: Reggie White
         Since I will be rushing with 5 most plays, I can afford to employ an aggressive one-gap system across the board. Lilly and Greene were both famous for attacking gaps and wreaking havoc in the backfield, so I'm especially excited about my DTs. No concerns with my DE's. 

Linebackers: 
LLB: Jack Ham  MLB: Dick Butkus RLB: Derrick Brooks JB: Lawrence Taylor
        In a 3 WR set, Ham will usually cover the TE and Butkus will cover the RB. If there are 2 RBs, Butkus will usually cover the FB and Ham will cover the HB. I will sub a safety for Butkus if there are two TEs and an empty backfield. As mentioned, Taylor will be blitzing most plays.

Secondary:
LCB: Deion Sanders RCB: Darrell Green SLT: Rod Woodson SFTY: Ronnie Lott
            In a 3 WR set, Sanders, Green, and Woodson will be in man-to-man with help from Lott over the top. If there are two TEs and an empty backfield, Lott will cover the second TE, as he has cornerback experience, and Tunnell will be the free safety. 

OFFENSE: I will use smashmouth, ball-control running to set up play-action passing.While I certainly have the personnel to run a more complex passing scheme, I prefer simple concepts that are well-executed. While I admit I have a much stronger vision for the defense, I do have some offensive ambition. The 1978 New England Patriots set the single-season record for total rushing yards with 3,165. I intend to break this record. Lets say all three of my HB rush for just over 1,000 yards (also a record) and Motley rushes for over 200 (I'm hoping Montana won't have to scramble too much). This beats the record and averages over 200 rushing yards per game, just like the '72 Dolphins and the '76 Steelers. That's my kind of team. Old school.

Again, let's look at each piece.

Offensive line:
          With Jim Parker, John Hannah, and Forrest Gregg on the line, I'm imagining a lot of outside power running with pulling offensive linemen. On inside runs, Dwight Stephenson is quick enough to chip shot a defensive tackle and still make a second level block on a linebacker. 

Running backs:
          I'm imagining using Motley primarily as a lead blocker for Brown and Payton. Sanders generally fared better in a two tight end set which gave him the space he needed to maneuver. Motley will get his 200 yards for the season on a few FB dives on 3rd and short and also on the occasional draw, a play which he helped develop with the Browns. 

Quarterback/Receivers:
         I'm hoping to exploit my power running game for lots of play action passing. On these plays, I imagine Hutson usually going deep, Rice and Mackey on mid range routes, and Motley as the check-down receiver. In general, I have a quarterback known for hitting short, accurate timing routes and Rice, Mackey, and Motley are three of the best receivers after the catch of all time. When the running game isn't quite clicking, we certainly will still have plenty of ways to win.

Quarterback selection: While I've certainly watched plenty of quarterback film, I decided to stick to the facts -- specifically, The Cold Hard Football Facts -- for my quarterback selection process. They argue that Starr and Montana are #1 and #2 all-time, and I agree. However, I think they fundamentally underrated Sid Luckman by the very measures they so convincingly demonstrated the value of:
- Leadership: Read George Halas's letter to Luckman. Have a box of tissues handy.
- Victories: 4 Championships
- Big-game performances: 89.4 post season passer rating, which was absolutely insane for his era. 135.6 passer rating in the 1943 championship game (also nabbed two interceptions and ran eight times for 64 yards). 
- Statistical supremacy: 2nd all-time career yards per pass attempt. 1st all-time TD%. Lead league three times in passing yards, twice lead league in passer rating. Higher career passer rating than (CHFF darling) Sammy Baugh.

I'd love to hear what anyone has to say at stephenproctorjr@gmail.com